Upstream Thinking

“You and a friend are having a picnic on the bank of a river. You’ve just laid down your picnic blankets when you hear a shout from the direction of the river. You look back and there’s a child thrashing around in the water. So you both dive in, you fish the child out, you bring them to shore. Just as you’re starting to calm down you hear another shout. You look back, there’s a second child splashing around, so back in you go. You fish them out, then there are two more children who come along right behind and so you’re in and out, fishing kids out. You then notice your friend swimming to the shore, stepping out, and starting to walk away. You cry out, “Hey, where are you going? I need your help" and your friend says, “I’m going upstream to figure out who’s throwing all these kids in the river.”

Upstream Thinking

The above parable is retold by Dan Heath in his exceptional book UPSTREAM which he uses to explore the concept of upstream thinking and the process of looking deeper into problems in order to find their true source. In the book, Dan highlights three key ideas that can be helpful to leaders, managers and anyone trying to become a more effective problem solver:

  • Downstream action centers around our reaction to problems once they’ve occurred. Upstream efforts look deeper and aim to prevent those problems from happening in the first place. Upstream efforts explore the systemic factors that influence problems.
  • People have a natural tendency towards downstream thinking as its impact is more immediately rewarding and tangible. It takes time and effort to look upstream and to reward those who seek to invest in prevention over solution.
  • There are three barriers that typically inhibit upstream thinking. People need to be aware of these and adjust the systemic factors that contribute to them if they are to achieve sustainable success.

Barriers

In the book Dan highlight the following key barriers to upstream thinking:

Problem Blindness - The first challenge is recognising that there is a problem in the first place. Many problematic situations develop over time and therefore slip into normality, hiding them from view. Even if the problem is evident to people, problem blindness can mean that they can't see a way forward and are resigned to it always being a problem.

Lack of Ownership - The next challenge links to who owns the problem. For many people, proactive upstream action is in contrast to their usual style of fixing immediate problems that they are directly told to solve. Unconsciously ignoring problems or consciously uttering "that's not my problem" are issues that block upstream thinking and action.

Tunneling - In our busy lives, where the juggling of multiple tasks and issues is commonplace, tunnel vision and the narrowing of attention and energy can be a real barrier. Solving the issues directly in front of you in order to move onto the next item on the list is often either a necessity or a personal preference. Upstream thinking requires the protection of time and the use of a wider perspective in order to seek the deeper roots and sustainable solutions for problems.

Key Takeaway

A foundational takeaway for me from the upstream book was that the source of any problem may lay further upstream than we initially think. We need to look deeper and widen our thinking in order to achieve sustainable solutions.

System Thinking

In the book, Dan highlights the notion that 'Every system is perfectly designed to produce the results it does' highlighting the danger of trying to fix problems without consideration of the people, processes and systems that create them.

System thinking is defined as 'a way of making sense of the complexity of the world by looking at it in terms of wholes and relationships rather than by splitting it down into its parts' and has a rich history in the business and leadership literature. Some of the published benefits include:

  • Broadens thinking
  • Enables the articulation of problems in new and different ways
  • Allows people to make informed choices
  • Facilitates the telling of compelling stories
  • Describes more fully how systems works
  • Identifies causal loops

System thinking is often seen as both a way of thinking and a technique or tool.

Philosophy

People who think in a systematic way are sensitive to the circular nature of the world and are aware of the role of structure in creating the conditions that problems exist within. They recognise that there are often powerful unseen elements driving the outcomes that are visible and are committed to directing their energy in that direction. They acknowledge that systems thinking requires curiosity, clarity, compassion, choice, and courage whilst also recognising connections and multiple interventions.

Diagnostic Tool

System thinking can also be used as a diagnostic tool prior to action, during ongoing review or within summative evaluation. It is a disciplined approach to examining problems more completely and accurately in order to best act. It often involves looking at patterns of behaviour over time to surface the underlying structures rather than the immediate outcomes or data.

System Mapping is often a phrase used to encompass a range of techniques aimed at identifying and mapping the elements within a system to understand how they interconnect, relate and act together. Effective system mapping then enables users to develop unique insights and discoveries. Typical system mapping tools include: Behaviour over time graphs, iceberg models, causal loop diagrams and connection circles.

Further Reading (Pandora's Box!)

As you would imagine, by definition, system thinking related literature encompasses a huge web of interconnected topics. Below are just some:

  • Collective Behaviour - Social dynamics, herd mentality, collective intelligence, Synchronisation
  • Networks - Scale-free, small world, Dynamical, Adaptive, Social, Scaling, Centrality
  • Evolution - Machine learning, Evolvability, Genetic algorithms, Evo-Devo
  • Pattern Formation -Percolation, Dissipative structures, Geomorphology, Spatial fractals
  • Systems Theory - Autopoiesis, Information theory, Entropy, System dynamics, Feedback
  • Nonlinear System - Multistability, Chaos, Bifurcation, Phase space, Iterative mapping
  • Game Theory - Iterative PD, Bounded Rationality, N-person PD, Cooperation vs competition

Putting it into Practice

So we now recognise that we are often blind to problems, unable to take ownership, too focused to make space to think strategically and also unaware of the interconnected components of the system that creates the problem.

In order to operationalise this thinking let's focus on three key questions that could be asked after the identification of an initial problem:

What are the system components?

Once the problem has been acknowledged and owned by an individual or group, there is a need to identify the system in which it exists and the various components of that system. These could be a combination of:

  • People
  • Processes
  • Beliefs
  • Behaviours

Where are the causal connections?

Now the focus switches to the connections between those components. Thoughts should center on the causal links and how different elements affect each other. Other considerations may include:

  • Number of links
  • Direction of links
  • Strength of links

Where are the pivots?

In this step, the focus is now on the efficiency of effort. Where can the individual and the organisation best place their energies and resources? Which component of the system if changed will yield the largest impact for the least input? Often there is more than one possible pivot and they need to be addressed in sequence.

Reflective Questions?

Now that we have an initial understanding of upstream and system thinking we can ask ourselves some key questions:

  • What problems are you blind to?
  • What problems are you avoiding ownership of?
  • How tunneled is your vision?
  • How often do you use upstream / systems thinking?
  • How far upstream or deep into the system do you typically look?
  • What tools and techniques could you use to improve your approach to problem solving?

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